摘要
农业劳动力老龄化可能对农业生产造成不利冲击,农业生产环节外包被认为是实现资本对劳动力替代的现实路径。关于老龄化是否会增加外包需求,已有研究尚未达成共识,并且存在一个重要的不足之处:没有考虑到兼业化的非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,非农劳动力协助农业生产往往与老龄化存在正相关关系,这导致老龄化对于外包影响的估计结果存在显著偏误。本文引入非农劳动力是否住家这一重要变量,剥离出非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,仅评估老龄化对于外包的边际影响。研究结果表明,老龄化对外包的影响在不同的环节存在差异,在低劳动强度环节,老龄化非但不会增加外包,反而显著降低了外包概率;在高劳动强度环节恰好相反,老龄化显著增加了外包概率。此外,在农业劳动力年龄相同的条件下,相比于非农劳动力住家的家庭,非农劳动力不住家的家庭外包概率更高。
The aging of the agricultural labor force may cause adverse impact on agricultural production,and the outsourcing of agricultural production is considered a practical way to realize the alternative of capital to labor force.Previous studies have not reached a consensus on the effect of aging,and most of them did not consider that non-agricultural labor force engages agricultural production,which would lead to biased results.This paper introduces a variable,the non-agricultural labor stays at home or not,to avoid the endogenously of ageing,and the empirical results showed that aging decreases significantly outsourcing probability in low-labor-intensity processes and increases the probability of outsourcing in highlabor-intensity processes.In addition,compared to the households whose non-agricultural labors stay at home,those whose non-agricultural labors do not stay at home may choose outsourcing with higher probability.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期27-34,共8页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"农地流转合约选择的机制分析及其对农业生产效率的影响研究"(编号:71673290)
国家自然科学基金面上项目"土地流转背景下农地经营投资行为与耕地质量提升研究"(编号:71573262)江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
"中国农业科学院科技创新工程(编号:ASTIP-IAED-2017-03)"
