摘要
以鲁西南地区雷电灾情资料、闪电定位资料、雷暴日资料、土壤电阻率资料、经济社会资料为基础,选取8个评价指标对雷电灾害频度预测进行研究,通过相关性分析,发现雷电流≥20 k A地闪密度以及总地闪密度与雷灾频度关系最密切,且通过了α=0.01的显著性检验,土壤电阻率对应的相关系数次之,且通过α=0.05的显著性检验,雷暴日、第三产业比例、人口密度、人均GDP、农村人口比例相关性不密切。通过回归分析,建立2个雷电灾害频度预测方程,分别通过了α=0.05和α=0.1的F检验,利用2015年雷灾数据进行验证,平均误差较小,具有一定的指导性。
Based on the lightning disaster data, ground -to -ground lightening data, thunderstorm days, soil resistivity data and social economic data of southwest Shandong. 8 evaluation indexes were selected and analysis frequency forecast of lightning disaster was analyzed. The conclusion shows that the density of the maximum correla- tion coefficient should be the lightning current more than 20kA and the total flash density, and through a significant test α = 0. 01, soil resistivity corresponding correlation coefficient of the second, and through the significant test of α = 0.05, do not close thunderstorm and the proportion of the third industry, population density, per capita GDP, the proportion of rural population correlation. Through regression analysis, 2 equations of lightning disaster frequen- cy prediction were established, respectively through α = 0.05 and α = 0.1 F test, verified by the 2015 disaster da- ta, the average error is small, with some guidance.
作者
程萌
范文锋
王照宇
CHENG Meng FAN Wenfeng WANG Zhaoyu(Juye Meteorological station of Shandong province, Juye 274900, China Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong province, Heze 274000, China)
出处
《贵州气象》
2017年第5期67-71,共5页
Journal of Guizhou Meteorology
关键词
雷电
相关性
回归
方程
lightning
relevance
regression
model
