摘要
从我国城市燃气发展统计数据入手,分析城市燃气管道的管龄分布,对整体管道失效趋势进行宏观的预测。从博燃网和中国燃气网的燃气事故报道中统计分析2012—2015年共3 927起燃气事故的具体信息。事故的时间特征统计分析表明,燃气事故整体呈现随机性,但燃气中毒窒息事故数量随月份变化表现出较强的规律性。燃气事故的地域特征统计分析表明,在燃气普及率不高的地区,燃气事故数量和死亡人数两个绝对指标值偏低,但百万人燃气事故数和万公里燃气管道事故数两个相对指标值却偏高,说明这些地区的市民安全用气意识更薄弱。事故发生的具体地点和事故原因的统计分析显示,居民住宅区是燃气事故最易发生的地点,而人为原因是造成燃气事故最主要的原因,因此加强燃气安全教育,提高用气人口的安全意识是减少和预防燃气事故的有效途径。
Starting from statistical data of gas development in China＇ s cities, the age distribution of urban gas pipelines are analyzed, and the macroscopic predictions of the overall trend of pipeline failure are made. The specific information of 3 927 gas accidents reported by Gasshow. com and Chinagas. org. cn that occurred in China from 2012 to 2015 is counted and analyzed. The statistical analysis of time characteristics of gas accidents shows that the gas accidents as a whole present randomness, but the number of the gas poison- ing and suffocation accidents show a strong regularity with the monthly variation. The statistical analysis of regional characteristics of gas accidents shows that two absolute indicators of accident number and death toll are low, but two relative indicators of gas accident rate per million people and gas accident rate per ten thou- sand kilometers of gas pipeline are high in the regions where gas popularity rate is not high. It shows that the gas safety awareness of the citizens in the regions is weaker. The statistical analysis of accident locations and accident causes shows that the residential area is the most prone to gas accident site, and the man-made cause is the main reason for gas accident. So enhancing gas safety education and improving people＇ s safety awareness are effective ways to reduce and prevent gas accidents.
作者
刘爱华
黄检
吴卓儒
张雅岚
张楠
LIU Aihua HUANG Jian WU Zhuoru ZHANG Yalan ZHANG Nan
出处
《煤气与热力》
2017年第10期27-33,共7页
Gas & Heat
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51508110)
广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310341)
关键词
燃气管道
燃气事故
失效数据库
统计分析
gas pipeline
gas accident
failure database
statistical analysis
