摘要
近几十年来,世界大豆出口格局变化显著,由美国绝对主导逐渐转变为美国、巴西、阿根廷"三国鼎立"的格局。该文从理论上和实证上分析了南北半球的季节差异对一国大豆比较优势及出口的影响,并据此解释世界大豆出口格局的变迁。研究发现,一国大豆出口数量在大豆收获季节后,将随着库存时间的延长显著下降。与非收获季节相比,处于收获季节的大豆更具比较优势。由于中国、欧盟等世界主要大豆进口国集中于北半球,在其大豆生产淡季、进口需求旺盛时,同位于北半球的美国也处于大豆生产淡季,大豆出口供给有限,而位于南半球的巴西和阿根廷则处于大豆生产旺季,大豆库存持有成本及出口成本较低,具有较强的比较优势,从而得以不断扩大大豆出口规模。在此激励下,南美利益相关者进一步通过改进技术、改善物流设施等途径大力发展本国大豆产业,助力本国土地及劳动力等资源优势,进一步协同两国大豆出口规模的提升,由此改变了世界大豆出口格局。
Over the past thirty to forty years,great changes have taken place in the world soybean export pattern,as shown by the gradual transformation from America＇s absolute dominance to the ＂ Three Kingdoms＂ pattern consisting of the United States,Brazil,Argentina.This has left important impact on the layout strategies of China＇s soybean import sources and long-term food security.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper analyzes the influence of the seasonal difference between the southern and northern hemisphere on the comparative advantages of a country＇s soybeans,and explains the changes of the world＇s soybean export pattern.The empirical results show that the amount of soybean exports in a country will significantly decline with the increase of inventory time after the soybean harvest season.Soybeans harvested at the harvest season have more advantages over non harvested soybeans.Major soybean importers like China are on the northern hemisphere.When China is in the offseason of soybean production,the demand for imports is strong,however,so is the US,with limited soybean supply.Brazil and Argentina on the southern hemisphere,however,are in the peak season of soybean production during the same time,and the inventory holding cost and the export cost are relatively low.The two sides thus have relatively strong comparative advantage and export competitiveness,thereby expanding soybean export scale.Under this incentive,South American stakeholders further develop the soybean industry, strengthen their competitiveness and promote the advantages of land and labor resources through technology and logistics facilities improvement.They further coordinate the promotion of the two countries＇ export scale and consequently changes the world＇s soybean export pattern.
作者
林大燕
温珺
朱晶
LIN Da-yan WEN Jun ZHU Jing(School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology 210094 Jiangsu Industrial Cluster Decision Consulting Research Base 210094 International Economy and Trade Research Center, Nanjing University of Science and Technology 210094 Jiangsu Food Security Research Center 210095)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期115-127,共13页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目:"粮食进口来源布局对中国粮食进口波动的影响研究--基于地域季节差异视角"(批准编号:71503127)
国家社科基金重大项目:"完善国家粮食安全保障体系研究"(批准编号:14ZDA038)和"新常态下产业集聚的环境效应与调控政策研究"(批准编号:15ZDA053)
江苏省社会科学基金项目:"江苏开放型农业对外投资发展战略研究"(批准编号:16EYC005)
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目:"基于农业产业集群的江苏新型比较优势培育研究"(批准编号:2016SJD790003)
江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地基金项目:"农业产业集群对中国及江苏粮食比较优势的影响研究"(批准编号:2015JDXM010)的资助
关键词
南北半球季节差异
出口格局
大豆
世界
Seasonal Difference between the Southern and the Northern Hemisphere
Export Pattern
Soybean
World
