摘要
多年来中国财政收入增速高于国内生产总值增速,财政收支预决算偏离度不断扩大,财政预算约束弱化。由于区域之间财政策略互动行为使空间溢出效应成为可能,可以将空间要素引入地区间预算管理,来检验地方政府预决算收入偏离度是否存在空间效应,以及具有空间集聚和空间辐射效应的地区分布情况及动态变化,从而探索政府效率与地区生产总值对预决算收入偏离的影响。利用空间统计和空间面板计量模型对中国大陆除西藏、港澳台外的30个省级政府面板数据进行实证检验发现:地方政府财政收入预决算偏差在中部地区间的差异高于东西部地区;地方政府财政收入预决算偏离存在显著空间集聚和辐射效应,其中"低—低"集聚地区逐渐从西南部向东南部推移,"高—高"集聚地区逐渐从东北部向中西部地区推移。在预决算偏离较小的沿海地区,以广东为中心的负向增长极带动周围地区降低预决算偏离度,而预决算偏离较大的东北部和中西部地区,以宁夏、陕西和内蒙古为中心的正向增长极带动周围地区扩大预决算偏离;地方政府效率对财政收入预决算偏离具有显著抑制作用,而地区生产总值与财政收入预决算偏离具有显著刺激作用,财政支出预决算偏离度对收入预决算偏离度具微弱影响。上述结论提供了如下政策含义:应完善预算管理体系,重视财政收入偏离度的空间效应,加强正向增长极地区预算约束,降低财政收入预决算偏离度;完善政府绩效评价体系,逐步降低GDP权重,提高政府效率指标权重;提高地方政府以改善民生为主的支出自主权,以降低由于决算支出低于预算支出造成的高支出偏离度。
In order to test whether there is horizontal effecr of the deviation of the local government budget and the spatial distribution of spatial agglomeration and spatial radiation effect, this thesis gives a spatial spillover effect among the regions in the situation and dynamic changes, to explore the impact of government efficiency and regional GDP on the deviation of the budget. The empirical results of 30 government offices data except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were analyzed by spatial statistics and spatial panel metering model. Difference between the budget of the local government and the budget of the Central Government was higher than that of the east. The ＂low-low＂ agglomeration area gradually moved from southwest to southeast, and the ＂high-high＂ agglomeration area gradually moved from northeast to the central and the western regions. In the coastal areas where the final accounts deviates from the smaller coastal areas, the negative growth of G-uangdong is the central area, and the budget is deviated from the northeastern and the central and the western areas. Ningxia, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are the center. Local government efficiency has a significant inhibitory effect on the deviation of the budgetary income of the fiscal revenue, while the deviation between the regional GDP and the fiscal revenue budget is a significant stimulating effect, and the fiscal expenditure as the pre-budget deviation of income is weakly affected. The above research provides the policy implication of improving the budget management system. Not the improvement of the GDP, but the efficiency of government efficiency indicators should be emphasized to reform the GDP and governmental efficiency evaluation. The local governments should pay more attention to improving people＇s llvelihood-based spending autonomy to reduce the budget deviation caused by high expenditure deviations.
作者
王华春
刘清杰
WANG Hua-chun LIU Qing-jie(School of Government, BNU, Beijing 100875 Emerging Markets Institute, BNU, Beijing 100875, China)
出处
《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期136-149,共14页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)
基金
北京市支持中央在京高校共建项目"公共管理重点学科建设"(2015-2016)
关键词
预决算收入偏离度
空间集聚效应
空间辐射效应
地方政府效率
地区生产总值
budgetary and final ineome deviation
spatial agglomeration effects
radiation effects
local government efficiency
regional gross domestic product
