摘要
概率体积法是目前比较理想的页岩气储量评估方法。以涪陵页岩气田×井区上奥陶统五峰组—下志留统龙马溪组下部地层为例,采用随机建模技术建立了工区的三维地质模型。对影响页岩气储量计算的5类不确定性参数进行分析,设置了各个参数的悲观、可能及乐观3个水平。采用正交试验设计方法设计了18组模拟方案,分别对其进行计算,用直观和方差分析方法对模拟结果进行分析,并对影响页岩气储量的不确定性参数进行了定量评价,最终得到页岩气的储量概率分布。该方法减少了模拟计算时间,提高了评价效率。
The probability volume method is a relatively ideal method for reserves evaluation. Taking the Upper Ordovician Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation in well block X of Fuling shale gas field for example, we established three-dimensional geological models of the work area by stochastic modeling technique, analyzed five categories of uncertain parameters which influence the shale gas reserves calculation result, and set three levels： pessimistic, possible and optimistic for each parameter. Furthermore, 18 groups of simulation programs were devised and calculated individually by the method of orthogonal experimental design, and the simulation results were analyzed with intuitive and variance analysis methods. Those uncertain parameters which influenced the shale gas reserves were quantitatively evaluated. Ultimately, the probability distribution of the shale gas reserves was gotten. This method reduces the experiment times and improves the evaluation efficiency.
出处
《断块油气田》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第5期678-681,共4页
Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"一种薄夹层精细地质模型的粗化方法--网格边缘属性建模法"(41572121)
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目"储层表征与建模"(2016CFA024)
关键词
页岩气
概率体积法
正交试验设计
随机建模
储量计算
shale gas
probability volume method
orthogonal experimental design
stochastic modeling
reserves calculation
