摘要
中国投资具有政策性、外生性、周期性的特点。投资通过金融部门融资的情况下,投资完全可以独立消费而增长,并通过费雪方程式效应和金融资产价值重估效应,对消费产生影响。在包括金融部门的Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型框架内,投资通过上述两种效应影响消费的过渡动态具有投资与消费同步变动的性质,从而为我国投资消费同步变动之谜提供了一个理论解释。通过基于误差修正的Granger因果检验、贝叶斯VAR脉冲响应函数等计量方法,发现投资是一个外生变量,投资影响消费的上述两个效应是真实存在的。持续的投资高增长导致投资消费结构失衡,并倒逼银行信用创造和央行扩大货币供给,降低央行货币政策独立性。
China＇s investment has the characteristics of policy, exogenous and cyclical. For investment is financed by bank and financial market, investment will not be influenced by consumption growth, but influence consumption by the Fisher Equation effect and the re-evaluation effect of financial assets. In the framework of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with financial assets, the transition dynamics of investment influence on consumption through the above two effects include the phenomenon of investment and consumption varies in synchronism, providing a theoretical explanation to the mystery of China＇s investment and consumption synchronous change. Based on the Granger causality test of error correction model, Bayesian VAR impulse response function and other econometrical methods, it is found that the investment is an exogenous variable, and the above two effects of investment on the consumption are proved. Continued high growth investment of China has led to the imbalance of investment-consumption structure, forced the bank credit creation and the central bank to expand the money supply, which will reduce the central bank＇s monetary policy independence.
出处
《消费经济》
北大核心
2017年第4期34-42,共9页
Consumer Economics
基金
广东省哲学社科“十二五”规划项目(GD15XLJ01)
广东高校省级重点平台和重大科研项目(2015WTSCX034)
教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJC790160)
关键词
投资
消费
传导机制
贝叶斯VAR模型
Investment
Consumption
Transmission Mechanism
Bayesian VAR Model
