摘要
随着新型城镇化建设的推进,城市无序蔓延与生态环境保护之间的矛盾对国家空间治理能力提出了新的要求。由于"三规"空间管制要求相互矛盾,一方面导致大量的土地浪费,另一方面无法保证建设项目的用地需求,如何实现"三规"空间管制要求在同一规划空间的整合成为重要的研究问题。广西钦州在2003年最先提出"三规合一"的规划编制理念,因此该文以钦州主城区为研究对象,在分析"三规"目标和内容基础上,选择"土规"的基本农田保护区和空间管制区、"城规"的空间管制区和分期建设规划、"经规"的重点建设项目和城市发展轴线作为"三规"空间管制整合的重点内容,采用层次分析法确定各管制内容对于引导城市开发建设活动可能产生影响的权重,然后计算"三规"空间管制整合引导下同一规划空间的土地优先发展概率值,将空间影响因素约束和规划控制指标约束加入到约束性CA的转换规则之中,进行"三规"空间管制整合引导下的钦州市主城区未来城市发展空间模拟。结果表明:"三规"空间管制整合引导下的城市模拟能够有效预测未来建设用地的空间布局,能够实现"三规"空间管制要求在同一规划空间的协调,可为规划整合工作提供一定的参考。
With the promotion from the construction of a new type of urbanization, the contradiction between urban sprawl and ec：ological environment protection has put forward new requirements for the ability of national space governance. National econo-my and social development planning, land use planning and urban master planning are the most important plans in China s plan-ning system, and the integration of them on spatial regulation is an important approach to solve the current urban space manage-ment problems. Taking the main city of Qinzhou as an example, firstly, six representative contents of the three plans were cho-sen as the key planning content of the spatial regulation integration of ＂three regulation＂ on the basis of analyzing the three plans target and function.T he weights of each content was det ermined w ith Analytic H ierarchy Process（ AH P） . Then the prob-ability value of land priority development induced by the results of planning integration was quantified. At last, strategic ar-rangement of urban spatial development and overall land use planing index were added into the transition rules of Cellular Au-tomata to simulate the urban spatial pattern of Qinzhou city in 2025. The result showed that the constricted CA which consider-ing the inducement of planning integration could effectively simulate the development pattern of urban growth, the Kappa oeffi＂ cient was 0 77, and the method could realize the coordination of their space control requirements in the same planning area as well as provide references for the work of planning integration.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期69-74,共6页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41571385)
中央高校自主科研项目(2042016kf0175)
关键词
空间管制
约束性CA
层次分析法
城市增长
spatial regulation
Constricted Cellular Automata
Analytic Hierarchy Process（ AHP）
urban growth
