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人口老龄化、养老保险与居民储蓄率 被引量:42

Population Aging,Endowment Insurance and Household Saving Rate
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摘要 本文首先构建了人口老龄化条件下包含中国现收现付模式与个人账户模式相结合的社会保险制度的OLG模型,并利用2001-2014年的省级面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,人口老龄化和养老保险对居民储蓄的影响是显著的。随着我国老龄化程度的加剧,老年人口比例上升,将导致储蓄率的下降。同时,社会统筹模式的养老保险将较大程度的挤占消费,原因是当前我国的养老保险还不够健全,并不能提供很好的保障,人们即使缴纳了养老保险仍然缺少安全感。最后本文提出了灵活延迟退休、完善养老保险制度等对策建议。 This paper firstly established an OLG model of endowment insurance including Pay-as-you-go model and individual account model under the condition of population aging, and then conducted an empirical research using the provincial panel data of 2001 - 2014. The results show that population aging and endowment insurance affect household saving rate significantly. With the increasing degree of aging in China, the proportion of elderly population will rise, which will lead to the decrease of household savings rate. At the same time, the social pooling of endowment insurance will greatly occupy the consumption. The reason is the current endowment insurance in our country is not perfect, and can not provide good protection. Even if people pay endowment insurance they still fell lack of security. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as flexible retirement and perfect endowment insurance system.
出处 《中国软科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第8期156-165,共10页 China Soft Science
基金 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573093)
关键词 老龄化 养老保险 居民储蓄 OLG模型 population aging endowment insurance household saving rate OLG model
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