摘要
在全球价值链中,中间产品贸易是中国对外贸易的主要构成部分。2015年,中国中间品贸易在全球经济体中占据第一的位置。然而,我国中间产品贸易受到了各种因素的影响和挑战,不利于我国由贸易大国向贸易强国转变。本文首先分析中国中间产品贸易总体情况;然后,运用灰色关联分析法从全球角度对影响中国中间产品贸易的关键因素加以确定,研究发现:汇率、劳动力因素和贸易成本等因素与中国中间产品贸易的关联度高,是影响中国中间产品贸易的关键因素;最后,有针对性地提出了促进中国中间产品贸易转型升级和长远发展的策略建议。
In global value chain, intermediate products trade is the main part of international trade of China. In 2015,it had taken the first place in the proportion of the main economic entities. However, it faces so many challenges from different factors of the world and the situation has a negative effect on China with the aim becoming a trading power. This article will first illustrate the general intermediate products trade between China and the world, and then focus on analyzing the importance and impact of ten major factors with gray correlation analysis. The key factors are exchange rate, labor and the cost of trade, next, it tries to analysis how such key factors as national trade policy to influence the intermediate products trade. Finally, it tries to come up with some relative solutions and advice to resolve the problem.
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国经济安全底线设定及实施策略研究"(16CJY004)
关键词
中间产品贸易
影响因素
灰色关联度分析
Intermediate products trade
Influence factor
Grey correlation analysis