摘要
进入21世纪以来,大陆与台湾、内地与港澳的经济联系愈加紧密,但一国四币现状严重阻碍了四地经济的融合与发展。在最优货币区的内生性理论的基础上,本文通过卡尔曼滤波构建状态空间模型考察四地是否具备构建最优货币区的经济基础,发现内地与香港地区、澳门地区存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制,适宜构建最优货币区;台湾与大陆间不存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制,二者在当前阶段不适宜构建最优货币区。
Since twenty-first Century, the economic ties between mainland and Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao have become closer. However, the current situation of one country＇s ＂four currencies＂ has seriously hindered the integration and development of the four regions. Based on the theory of optimal currency area, a state space model is used to investigate whether the four places in China have the economic base to construct optimal currency area, finding that there is a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency area between China's Mainland and Hong Kong area, Macao area, and they are suitable for construction of optimal currency area; there is no a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency between Taiwan Region and China's Mainland and they are not suitable for construction of optimal currency area.
作者
姜红艳
苑西恒
JIANG Hong-yan YUAN Xi-heng(Business School, Belling Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences/China Oceanwide, Beijing 100005, China)
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第8期35-40,共6页
Commercial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目
项目编号:15ZDC021
关键词
两岸四地
经济周期
经济冲击
最优货币区
内生性理论
four sides across the Strait
economic cycle
economic shock
optimum currency area
endogenous theory
