摘要
利用聚类分析、逐步回归分析确定小麦与稻谷种植面积模型和指标体系.建立综合指标评价模型和ARMA模型,可知:最低收购政策具有托市效应.结合时间趋势剔除法、蛛网模型,可知:小麦和稻谷价格波动呈现5、3年的周期性,分别满足发散型、收敛型蛛网形态.建立基于补偿法的最低收购价定价模型并用BP神经网络模型进行检验.基于反证法,推知调控最低收购价提高5%小麦种植面积的做法是不可行的.最后提出了调控粮食种植的建议·
The cultivated area model and target system of wheat and paddy can be educed based on clustering and stepwise regression analysis in this paper. The Grain Minimum Purchase Price Policy is effective on increasing cultivated area and supporting the market, which can be concluded by calculating the Comprehensive Index Assessment and ARMA model. Combining with the time trend rejection method and cobweb model, it can be drawn that the price fluctuation of wheat and paddy presents periodic for five or three years, which is in accordance with a divergent cobweb or convergent cobweb form respectively. The minimum purchase pricing model which is tested by back-propagation artificial neural network has been raised based on compensation method. On account of the reduction to absurdity, reaching a five percent increase in wheat planting area by regulating the minimum purchase price is infeasible. And the regulation suggestions of grain planting are presented in the end of this paper.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2017年第15期128-142,共15页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
