摘要
为了探究气候变化对作物生长期的影响,根据1964—2013年滇中地区49个气象站点逐日的最高气温、最低气温和降水数据,采用M-K检验和小波分析,研究了滇中地区作物生长期的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明,(1)滇中地区多年平均作物生长期(GSL)为362.58 d,1964—2013年GSL、无霜日和Tmin均呈显著上升趋势,其中GSL增幅约为0.371 d/10 a,Tmax呈微上升趋势,降水量则呈显著减少趋势,而通过M-K检验得知滇中平均GSL突变时间约为1988年,1999年后呈显著上升趋势,并具有9 a和25 a的周期变化;(2)滇中地区作物生长期空间上表现出中部高,东西低的分布特征,且GSL上升趋势从中南部向东西部越来越明显,尤其是东北部和西北部均呈现出显著上升的趋势;(3)GSL与无霜日和Tmin表现出极显著正相关性关系,且GSL变化受Tmin影响最为显著。
This paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of crop growth in central Yuannan Province under different climate changes based on the maximum and minimum temperature and other factors measured at 49 sta- tions from 1964 to 2013 in this region, using the Mann-kendall rank test and the wave-let analysis method. The re- suits showed that：①The mean annual growing-season-length （GSL） was 362.58 d, and the GSL, frost-free days and minimum temperature （Tmin） all significantly increased from 1964 to 2013, with the rate of GSL increasing by 0.371 d/10 a. In the meantime, the maximum temperature increased slightly, while the precipitation decreased. The GSL dropped in 1988, followed by a significant increase in 1999. There were a 9 a and a 25 a periods. ②The GSL was higher in the central regions than at the east and the west, and it increased from the central south to the east and the west, especially in the northeast and northwest. ③There was a significant positive correlation be- tween GSL and the frost-free day, as well as Train. The change in GSL was mostly affected by Tmin.
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第8期83-88,共6页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
云南省社会发展科技计划项目(2012CA021)
云南省科技计划项目(2015BB019)
云南省省级分成水资源费项目(201203)
关键词
作物生长期
时空变化
温度
滇中地区
GSL
temporal and spatial variation
temperature
central area of Yunnan province
