摘要
次贷危机造成发达国家市场持续低迷,我国出口量在2015年再次出现了下降。作为贸易大国,我国需要评估对外的依存程度,从而降低外国市场波动对我国经济的影响。本文利用世界投入产出模型,从增加值的角度构建了对外依存度的测算方法并利用1995—2011年的数据对我国对外依存程度的国家空间分布及演化特征进行了分析。结果显示:我国对美国、欧盟等主要整体和地区的对外依存度呈现先上升后下降的态势;我国对美国的依存程度最高,其次是欧盟、日本、韩国和俄罗斯。该结果意味着我国在处理贸易争端的过程中逐渐具有一定的优势。
Subprime crisis caused continued market downturn in developed countries, China＇s exports fell again in 2015. As a trading power, China needs to assess the degree of external dependence, thereby reducing the impact of foreign market volatility on China＇s economy. Based on the world input-output model, this paper constructs the method of calculating the degree of foreign dependency from the added value perspective, and uses the data from 1995 to 2011 to analyze the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of China＇s external dependence.The results show that China＇ s dependence degrees on the United States, the European Union and other major areas show a trend from decline to rise. China has the highest degree of dependence on the United States, followed by the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Russia. This result means that China has some advantages in the process of dealing with trade disputes.
作者
刘鹏
夏炎
李鑫茹
陈锡康
Liu Peng Xia Yan Li Xin-ru Chen Xi-kang(School of Business Administration, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006 Science and Technology Strategy Consulting Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190 Institute of Math- ematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190)
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期89-96,共8页
Economist
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"贸易收入链与反映贸易国民收入的DPN投入占用产出模型研究"(71473244)
关键词
对外依存度
增加值
世界投入产出模型
最终需求
Degree of External Dependence
Value Added
World Input-output Model
Ultimate Demand
