摘要
In this study, we first define ecological technologies and the need for identification technology, and we then examine all the present methods of identification technology： Delphi method, Technology Road Mapping Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Patentometric method and the text mining method. Among these methods, the combination of Delphi ＋ Analytic Hierarchy Process incorporates ecological technologies into social and economic systems for a systematic identification, and is able to build an index system for an identification model of ecological technologies, identifying technical features, technical level and performance, and economic, social and ecological benefits. Patentometric method presents an objective perspective for identification, based on the characteristics and the internal development logic of ecological technologies. We find that the Delphi ＋ Analytic Hierarchy Process and Patentometric method are the best choices for identification of ecological technologies, because both combine the advantages of qualitative and quantitative identification.
本文在界定生态技术概念和生态技术识别需求的基础上,梳理了现有的技术识别的方法。目前应用于技术辨识的方法主要有德尔菲法、技术路线图、层次分析法、专利计量法和文本挖掘法。其中"德尔菲法+层次分析法"把生态技术纳入到社会经济系统中进行系统化的识别,主要是构建生态技术识别的指标体系模型,分别从技术特性、技术水平和性能、经济、社会和生态效益视角进行识别;专利计量法从客观角度出发,依据生态技术自身的特点和发展规律,对其进行识别。本文认为"德尔菲法+层次分析法"和专利计量法这两种方法结合了定性和定量技术识别的优点,应该成为开展生态技术识别的首选。
基金
National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0503703)
