摘要
该文研发了基于CREST V2.1分布式水文模型的暴雨致洪预报系统,应用中国气象局降水业务产品,开展全国0.125°×0.125°的逐日洪水预报和区域30″×30″的逐时洪水预报。其中,全国洪水预报以松花江、辽河、海河、黄河、淮河、长江、东南诸河、珠江、西南诸河和西北诸河十大水资源分区的典型流域为研究对象,区域洪水预报以淮河流域为研究对象。以模拟和观测流量之间的效率系数为目标函数,采用SCE-UA方法分别对全国和区域洪水预报模型的参数分流域进行率定。评估参数率定前后模型对效率系数、相关系数和相对偏差的改进程度,并对参数率定后的模型进行检验。结果表明:率定后的模型能够重现控制水文站的实测洪水过程,与率定前相比,效率系数和相对偏差有显著改进,相关系数有较大改进。系统符合业务需求,具有较好的预报精度和时效性,具备业务应用能力。
Flood disaster is one of the important factors and society of China. The development of a well portant non-engineering flood prevention measure that restrict the sustainable development of the economy performing rainstorm-flood forecasting system is an im- that would mitigate the loss of imminent flood disasters. A rainstorm-caused flood forecasting system, which is based on the distributed hydrological model CREST V2.1, is developed to provide refined streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and other forecast products. By utilizing operational precipitation data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA） to serve as input for this system, nationwide flood forecasting is carried out by 0. 125°×0. 125° daily, and re gional forecast is done by 30＂× 30＂ hourly. For the former, one typical watershed is selected for each of ten river basins as Songhua, Liao, Hat, Yellow, Huai, Yangtze, Southeast, Pearl, Southwest and Northwest River Basins, while for the latter just the Huai River Basin is taken as focus. The SCE UA optimization al- gorithm is adopted to search the optimal parameter sets that maximize the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency （E） be- tween the observed and the simulated streamflow discharges for gauging stations of typical watersheds. E, correlation coefficient （C）, and relative bias （B） are used to evaluate model performances before and after the calibration of model parameters. Validation tests are conducted by transferring calibrated parameter values to another flood event of the same watershed. Results show that the calibrated model can reproduce the observed flood processes and provide accurate hydrological forecasting service. Compared to the non- calibrated model, the calibrated one significantly improves E and B, and moderately improves C. It has good applicability in watersheds with different hydroclimatic, geological and geomorphological conditions, but has relatively weak forecasting ability for frequently fluctuating low-flow flood. For the model parame- ters, their
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期385-398,共14页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41505092)
国家重点研究发展计划(2017YFC1404000
2016YFC0402702)
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2015LASW-A05)
中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金(2016Y010)
关键词
暴雨致洪
水文预报
河流洪水
山洪灾害
CREST模型
rainstorm-caused flood
hydrological forecasting
river flood
mountain torrent disasterCREST model
