摘要
灾害指数保险产品设计的关键问题之一是选取恰当的保险指数。本文以海南省橡胶树风灾为对象,在研究区进行调研的基础上,依托详细的橡胶农场级别历史台风灾害损失数据,结合由台风风场模拟的大风强度指标,对橡胶树风灾保险指数的指标选取与设计进行了研究。结果表明,由台风大风风速表征的致灾因子强度以及风前降水、地形起伏度等指标构成的孕灾环境要素能够较好地解释橡胶树风灾的历史损失。多指标回归模型对已开割树、未割树的总损失率解释能力较好,调整R方可分别达到0.865和0.682。在可能影响橡胶树风灾损失的多个指标中,风速指标的解释能力最好。对于已开割树而言,农场范围内阵风风速平均值的台风过程时间序列最大值适用性最强;对于未开割树而言,农场范围内阵风风速平均值的台风过程时间序列平均值适用性最强。
One of the key issues in disaster index insurance product is selecting the appropriate insurance index. Bases on a detailed survey in the study area and data collection of historic wind disaster losses of farms, this article studied the index selection and design of wind disaster insurance for Hainan rubber trees. We also used the wind strength index by the typhoon wind field simulation. The result shows that the hazard strength characterized by the wind speed and the disaster environment characterized by pre-wind precipitation and the terrain fluctuation degree can better explain historic losses. The multi-index regression model＇ s interpretation for the total loss rate of cut trees and non-cut trees is robust. Adjusted R square can respectively reach 0.865 and 0. 682. Among many affect- ing indicators of disaster losses, the wind speed is the most indicative. For cut trees, the suitability of the maximum average wind speed time series is the highest, within the scope of a farm. And for non-cut trees, the suitability of the average wind speed time series is the highest.
作者
刘新立
叶涛
方伟华
LIU Xinli YE Tao FANG Weihua(School of Economics,Peking University, Beijing 100871 Academy of Disaster Deduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875)
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期93-102,共10页
Insurance Studies
基金
世界银行TCC5子课题"海南橡胶树风灾指数保险研究与试点"项目
北京大学经济学院青年基金项目资助
关键词
橡胶树风灾
脆弱性
保险指数
rubber tree wind disaster
fragility
insurance index
