摘要
经典文献和学术界主流更多地从人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响这一角度来观察和分析"人口红利"。经典的"人口红利"概念不足以体现人口转变对经济增长的积极影响。人口年龄结构变动对经济增长产生的积极影响,与这一过程中人口质量的提升密不可分。因此,"人口红利"应该被定义为:在人口转变开始后,由人口年龄结构变动与人口质量提升共同作用形成的、有利于经济增长的人口条件。文章利用生产函数构造了新的"人口红利"测度指标,在此基础上,分析了中国未来人口变动对经济增长的影响,结论是人口质量提升能够使人口变动长期有利于经济增长。因此,中国未来人口发展的方向是人口质量的提升,而不是依赖生育政策来延续所谓"有利于经济增长的人口年龄结构"。
Classical literature and academic mainstream mostly observe and study the demographic dividend from the view of influences of population age structure on economic growth.The classical concept of demographic dividend is not enough to reflect the positive influences of population transition on economic growth.The change of population age structure generates economic growth dividend,which is inseparable with the improving quality of population in the process.Hence,the demographic dividend should be defined as followed:A sort of population condition which is caused by the combined effects of the change of population age structure and the improvement of population quality after the onset of the demographic transition and beneficial to economic growth.This paper uses production function to construct a new indicator for the demographic dividend.On this basis,it analyzes the influences of population change on economic growth in China in the future.The conclusion is that the improvement of population quality can make population change benefit economic growth in the long run.Therefore,improving population quality is the future development direction of China’s population and keeping the age structure which is beneficial to economic growth by adjusting fertility policies is not the proper policy.
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期3-11,共9页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
关键词
人口转变
第一次人口红利
第二次人口红利
人口年龄结构
人口质量
经济增长
Demographic Change
The First Demographic Dividend
The Second Demographic Dividend
Population Age Structure
Population Quality
Economic Growth
