摘要
本文根据武汉市统计数据,应用计量经济学方法,建立了汽车保有量预测模型,模型特别将上一年汽车保有量作为表征消费者购车心理的变量纳入了分析。通过MATLAB软件计算出回归系数和相关统计参数,并对模型进行了各项检验,最终根据修正后的模型计算了武汉市2016年的汽车保有量,结果较为准确,表明该方法是一种较为严谨的短期预测方法。本文亦对武汉市2017年的汽车保有量进行了预测。
According to the statistics of Wuhan, the forecasting model of vehicle population based on econometrics is established, the vehicle population of last year is especially considered in this model as a variable of representation of consumer psychology, and therewith regression coefficients and related statistic parameters are calculated through MATLAB in this paper, solid tests on the model are conducted as well. After model adjusted, the vehicle population of Wuhan in 2016 is eventually calculated. The result is comparatively accurate indicating it is a technically feasible method. The vehicle population of Wuhan in 2017 is predicted in this paper as well.
出处
《汽车科技》
2017年第4期45-48,共4页
Auto Sci-Tech
