摘要
本文采用时变面板平滑转换回归模型,在非线性的框架下对我国30个省份(地区)2000—2015年保险发展与经济增长关系展开深入研究。文章构建包括金融系统因素和宏观经济基本面因素的非线性模型,重点考察在金融系统变化情况下,保险市场发展对经济增长的渐进影响效应及传递路径。研究发现,金融发展水平越高的区域,通常其金融系统的资金配置效率和投资效率也更有效,保险消费对经济增长具有强拉动效应,其中寿险的融资功能比财险经济补偿功能更具经济增长效应;而地区金融风险程度增高,则会大幅度提高该区金融系统的投资风险,进而弱化财险和寿险对经济增长的正效应。最后本文提出了现阶段深化金融改革与管控金融风险的若干建议。
This paper uses a dynamic panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the relationship between insurance and economic growth for thirty provinces from 2000 to 2015in a nonlinear framework.This paper constructs a nonlinear model by introducing financial system and macroeconomic fundamentals factors,and puts an emphasis on analyzing the gradual effect and transfer path of the insurance market development on economic growth.The results show that in the regions with higher level of financial development,the efficiency of capital allocation and investment of its financial system is also more effective,and insurance consumption has a strong pulling effect on economic growth.Among them,the financing function of life insurance has more economic growth effect than the compensation function of property insurance.While the increase of regional financial risk will greatly increase the investment risk of the financial system in this area,and then weaken the positive effects of property insurance and life insurance on economic growth.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions in deepening financial reform and controlling financial risk at the present stage.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期29-40,共12页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CGL004)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ057)
河南省教育厅人文社会科学青年项目(2015-QN-202)
郑州轻工业学院博士科研基金资助项目(2014BSJJ038)
关键词
保险发展
金融深化
经济增长
时变面板平滑转换回归模型
Insurance development
Financial deepening
Economic growth
Dynamic panel smooth transitional regression model
