摘要
黄金因具有货币和商品双重属性,可抵御通货膨胀风险和主权货币贬值风险,在国家经济安全及金融稳定中承担着重要作用。深入研究黄金双重避险能力及其联动性,尤其是当重大政治、经济及突发事件发生时其的演化规律,可以全面认识黄金的避险能力。研究表明,自布雷顿森林体系解体以来,黄金的双重避险能力呈现显著时变特性,其联动性在重大政治、经济及突发事件发生时明显增强;2007年次贷危机发生以来,联动能力急剧增强至历史最高点,"乱世买金"的特点充分体现。
Gold,with its dual attributes of currency and commodity,can resist the risk of inflation and sovereign currency devaluation,as well as playing a significant role in national economic security and financial stability.This paper applies quantitative analysis to further analyze the dual hedging ability of gold and its dynamic linkage,especially the evolution when the major political,economic and emergent events occur.Through the analysis,this paper provides a comprehensive understanding of gold’s hedging ability.The result indicates that the dual hedging ability of gold has obvious time-varying characteristics after the Bretton Woods System’s disintegration and its interactive relationship is significantly enhanced during the occurrence of major political,economic and emergent events.The result also shows that the linkage capacity has increased sharply to the highest point in history and fully reveals the value of purchasing gold in troubled times,since the beginning of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis in 2007.
出处
《学习与探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期123-129,共7页
Study & Exploration
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71303145)
