摘要
自然利率这一概念在经济理论中具有非常重要的作用,不仅是货币政策行为中的一个重要变量,而且与通货膨胀、经济增长等宏观经济目标变量之间有着更密切的联系,与潜在经济增长率、自然失业率(非加速通货膨胀失业率)等概念紧密联系又有所区别,可以为货币政策的正确制定和评价提供重要的参考依据。但是自然利率并不能被直接观测到,本文利用Giammarioli&Valla(2004)提出的一个动态随机一般均衡模型框架,测定中国的自然利率走向。结果显示,利用自然利率与实际利率得出的利率缺口是衡量货币政策取向的一个更好的指标。
The concept of the natural rate of interest has a very important role in economic theory, is not only an important variable in the conduct of monetary policy, but with inflation, economic growth and other macroeconomic target variables have a closer contact with the potential economic growth rate and the natural rate of unemployment（NAIRU） the concept of close contact and distinction, provide important reference basis for the correct formulation and evaluation for monetary policy. However, natural interest rates can not be directly observed. This paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model proposed by Giammarioli Valla（2004） to determine the trend of natural interest rates in china. The results show that the interest rate gap between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate is a better indicator of the monetary policy orientation.
出处
《吉林金融研究》
2017年第6期11-14,共4页
Journal of Jilin Financial Research
