摘要
利用2005~2013年我国31个省市自治区的面板数据构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型(SSPVAR)和时空脉冲响应分析,对城镇化、工业化和农业现代化三者的关系进行了空间溢出效应实证分析。结果表明:(1)城镇化发展对本省及周边地区城镇化和工业化建设有正的促进作用,对本省农业现代化建设先抑制后促进,对周边地区则相反;(2)工业化发展对本省及周边地区城镇化和工业化建设分别有抑制和促进作用,对本省农业现代化建设有促进作用,对周边地区则相反;(3)农业现代化对周边地区的城镇化建设有长期促进作用,对工业化建设有短期抑制而长期促进作用,对农业现代化建设有短期促进长期抑制作用;(4)财政支出对三化的影响因其发展水平不同而不同。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2013, this article builds the semi-parametric spa- tial panel autoregressive model （SSPVAR） , does the impulse response analysis, and discusses the relationship among ur- banization, industrialization, agricultural modernization and fiscal expenditure. The results show that ： （ 1 ） The development of urbanization promote urbanization and industrialization both in local and surrounding, but it would promote first then in- hibit agricultural modernization in local while surrounding area is the opposite. （2） The development of industrialization promote industrialization and inhibit urbanization both in local and surrounding. It also promote agricultural modernization in local but surrounding is the opposite. （ 3 ） The development of agricultural modernization can promote urbanization. It inhib- its first then promotes industrialization, but it would cause opposite effect in agricultural modernization in surrounding. （4） The impact of fiscal expenditure on the three level is different because of theirs different level of development.
作者
叶阿忠
陈婷
YE A-zhong CHEN Ting(School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108)
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期54-59,共6页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71571046
71171057)
关键词
半参数空间面板向量自回归模型
城镇化
工业化
农业现代化
财政支出
semi-parametric spatial panel vector autoregressive model
urbanization
industrialization
agricultural moderni- zation
fiscal expenditure
