摘要
为了更加深入地了解灞河流域气候变化特征,利用灞河流域近50 a的降水观测数据,运用滑动平均法、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及小波分析法分析了灞河流域年内、年际降水的变化趋势、突变时间及降水的变化周期。结果表明:1958—2012年降水呈波动下降趋势,未来几年降水仍然呈下降趋势;年内降水分配极不均匀,主要集中在7—9月份,春季和秋季降水呈明显下降趋势,夏季和冬季降水呈微弱上升趋势;四季降水Hurst指数均<0.5,降水序列具有反持续性和负相关性;年降水有明显突变特征,突变时间为1989年,春、夏和秋季有明显的突变点,突变时间分别为1994,1979,1985年,冬季降水无明显突变点;年降水及四季降水序列的变化周期基本在22~29,13,4~8 a的时间尺度上浮动,不同尺度上周期性变化差异较大。
The aim of the present research is to better understanding the characteristics of climate change in the Ba-he river drainage basin. The annual and inter-annual precipitation changes, the abrupt change time, and the varia-tion period of precipitation are analyzed based on observations in the past half century. Moving-average method, R/S analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet analysis are adopted for the research. Results reveal that 1 ） from 1958 to 2012, precipitation presented a decline trend with fluctuations, and will keep declining in the next several years; 2） precipitation is extremely uneven in a year, mainly focused from July to September, decreasing obviously in spring and autumn, and rising slightly in summer and winter ; 3 ） Hurst index of precipitation in four seasons are all less than 0.5, and the precipitation series have features of anti-continuity and negative correlation; 4） annual precipitation has apparent abrupt change in 1989, and abrupt changes are also found in the spring, summer and au-tumn in 1994, 1979, and 1985, respectively, with no abrupt change in winter; 5） the variation period of annual and seasonal precipitation fluctuates in time scales of 22-29 a, 13 a, and 4-8 a, and the periodic change differs greatly in various scales.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第7期12-18,共7页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
中国地质调查局地质调查项目(12120113004800)
