摘要
在对已有的经济周期理论进行回顾的基础上,文章对内生经济周期的发展历程进行了综述。依据时间先后顺序,内生经济周期理论可以分为第一代内生经济周期理论、第二代内生经济周期理论与新凯恩斯主义行为宏观经济学。第一代内生经济周期理论将驱动经济周期的动力归结为由于动态不定性带来的内生信念;第二代内生经济周期理论则指出内生信念可以来源于动态不定性也可以来源于稳态不定性;而新凯恩斯主义行为宏观经济学则在新凯恩斯主义的分析框架内,通过产品市场不完备性的引入,提高了模型对于现实的拟合程度,并且提出的宏观经济政策更加符合现实的需要。最后,文章对内生经济周期理论未来发展的方向进行了说明。
This paper reviews the traditional business cycle theory, and introduces the development of endogenous business cycle. According to the time sequence, endogenous business cycle can be divides as the first generation theory, the second generation theory and new Keynesian behavioral macroeconomics. The first generation theory argues the importance of endogenous belief which was generated by dynamic indeterminacy in business cycle. The second generation theory points that, the source of business cycle is dynamic indeterminacy and steady state indeterminacy. And the new Keynesian behavioral macroeconomics introduces nominal imperfections in good market with the new Keynesian framework, it improves the fitness of model to the reality, the policy abstract from this theory meets the needs much better. Then, this paper gives some details of the future development of endogenous business cycle theory.
出处
《兰州学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期186-197,共12页
基金
广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划学科共建项目(项目编号:GD14XYJ02)
关键词
经济周期
动物精神
内生信念
非完全理性
business cycle
animal spirits
endogenous belief
imperfect rational
