摘要
为提高旱地小麦气候适宜程度动态分析的能力,利用黄土丘陵典型区域定西1971-2005年逐日气象资料及大田资料,建立小麦日气候适宜度模型,计算各生长阶段(营养生长阶段、营养与生殖生长并进阶段、生殖生长阶段)及全生育期综合气候适宜度,确定气候适宜性综合评价标准。通过本土化APSIM(Agricultural Production System Simulator)平台,模拟小麦逐日生物量,采用动态逼近误差平方和方法,确定气候适宜性诊断分析标准。通过等级百分比比较的方法,检验诊断分析标准,并定量、动态分析2002-2005年旱地小麦各生长阶段及全生育期气候适宜程度。结果表明,基于APSIM的诊断分析标准评价结果与基于综合评价标准的结果相比,气候适宜性等级相同和级差为1的占86%~90%;2002-2005年旱地小麦各生长阶段及全生育期诊断分析结果均为较适宜,与研究区实际情况基本相符。该优化方法为旱地小麦气候适宜性分析的动态跟踪提供了一定技术支持。
In order to improve the dynamic analysis ability about climate suitability level of drylang wheat, based on daily meteorolosieal data of Dingxi experimental station, field experimental data from 1971 to 2005, the daily climate suitability degree model of dryland wheat was established in the hilly-gullied region of the Loess Plateau. By using the model, the comprehensive climate suitability indices were calculated and the comprehensive evaluation standards were confirmed during each growth stage（nutrition growth stage, nutrition and reproduction growth stage, reproduction growth stage） and whole stage of wheat. The wheat daily biomass was simulated by applying suitable APSIM. The diagnosis analysis standards of climate suitability were determined by methods of dynamic approximation error sum of squares and were verified by comparing the evaluation results based on APSIM and those based on the daily climate suitability degree model with grade percentage method. During the main growth stage of wheat from 2002 to 2005, the climate suitability level of dryland wheat was analyzed and evaluated by using diagnosis analysis standards. The results showed that the evaluation results based on APSIM and those based on thedaily climate suitability degree model were in substantial agreement grade identical and differ by one grade accounted for 86%-90%.The diagnosis analysis results of each growth stage and whole stage of dryland wheat were more suitable from 2002 to 2005, and that was basically consistent with actual circumstances of experimental region. The APSIM-based optimization method could improve the tracing analysis ability about climate suitability level of wheat and could provide technical assistance for wheat production adapting to climatic change.
作者
聂志刚
任新庄
李广
董莉霞
马维伟
唐洁
刘小娥
罗永忠
NIE Zhi-gang REN Xin-zhuang LI Guang DONG Li-xia MA Wei-wei TANG Jie LIU Xiao-e LUO Yong-zhong(College of Information Science and Technology/College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070 College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070)
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期369-377,共9页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2014A-058
2016A-067)
国家自然科学基金(31660348
31560378
31560343
41561022)
甘肃省自然科学基金(1506RJZA015)
甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(1506RJYA005)
关键词
APSIM
综合评价
动态诊断
小麦
模拟
APSIM
Comprehensive evaluation
Dynamic diagnosis
Wheat
Simulation
