摘要
由于冲击地压影响因素较多,且影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰度、未知性等不确定性,冲击危险性综合评价时考虑因素不足,导致评价结果不准确。针对此问题,基于云的定性不确定性度量模型和D-S理论的冲突证据合成规则,综合考虑地质条件、开采技术条件、安全管理因素以及其他影响因素,构建了冲击地压危险性综合评价体系,并对峻德煤矿冲击危险性进行综合评价。评价结果与工程实践符合,结果表明:基于云模型和D-S理论的冲击地压危险性综合评价准确、可靠,精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。
The influencing factors on rockburst have uncertainty, such as randomness, fuzziness, gray degree and unpredictabili- ty, which would not be considered effectively in the comprehensive risk evaluation, leading to inaccurate evaluation results. To solve this problem, based on the cloud certainty and uncertainty measurement model as well as conflicting evidence composition rules of D-S theory, the rockburst risk comprehensive evaluation system was established,considering the geological conditions, mining technical conditions~ safety management and other affecting factors. Then, a comprehensive evaluation was put forward on rockburst risk in Junde Coal Mine. The evaluation results were in accordance with the engineering practice,and the results showed that the comprehensive evaluation of rockburst based on the cloud model and D-S theory was accurate,reliable and pre- cise, with good application value.
作者
陈光波
CHEN Guangbo(College of Mining and Safety Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266590, Chin)
出处
《矿业研究与开发》
北大核心
2017年第6期26-30,共5页
Mining Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379119)
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51604164
51304126)
关键词
冲击地压
综合评价
云模型
D—S理论
Rockburst, Comprehensive evaluation, Cloud model, D-S theory
