摘要
水库群优化调度的风险分析问题一直是研究的焦点,而在短期优化调度研究中,水流滞时的处理问题更是研究的难点。因此,按照风险识别-风险估计-风险评价与决策的思路,建立了考虑滞时的水库群短期优化调度风险分析模型。首先选取来流预报误差与滞时因子作为短期优化调度的主要风险因子,接着采用随机模拟的方法对主要风险因子进行估计,进而以耦合的两主要风险因子作为模型输入,得到所定运行策略下所面临的风险率,最后将所建模型应用到雅砻江流域的短期优化调度中。结果表明该模型不仅操作简单而且兼具实用性,无论对发电计划的制定还是水库的运行管理方面都有重要的指导意义。
The risk analysis of reservoir group operation is always a hot and important topic,especially for short-term optimal operation considering flow time-lag. A short-term optimal operation risk analysis model considering flow time-lag is established according to risk identification-measurement and risk assessment and decision-making. Firstly,we choose the inflow forecast error and flow time-lag factor as the main risk factors,and then use the stochastic simulation method to estimate the main risk factors,thus get the risk rate under the determined operating strategy by coupling the two major risk factors as model input,finally apply the model to the short-term optimal operation of two hydropower stations on Yalong river. The results show that the model is not only simple and effective,but also has important significance to making power generation schedule or reservoir operation management.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2017年第11期107-111,共5页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279062
51179069)
"十三五"国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0402208)
中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(JB2015169
2016MS51
2014ZD12)
关键词
水流滞时
联合调度
风险分析
水库群
雅砻江流域
flow time-lag
joint scheduling
risk analysis
reservoir group
Yalong River
