摘要
采用协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验等方法,分析我国城乡居民消费支出与体育产业发展的互动关系。研究表明:我国城乡居民消费支出和体育产业发展是处于渐进式提高的过程,但城镇与农村居民消费支出的差距依然存在;城乡居民消费支出通过体育消费影响体育产业发展,体育产业通过提供适宜于人民群众的体育产品和服务,推动城乡居民消费支出向体育消费倾斜;从长期看,城镇居民消费支出与体育产业发展之间具有协整关系,农村居民消费支出与体育产业发展之间没有协整关系;在短期内,城乡居民消费支出与体育产业发展之间不存在均衡关系;城乡居民消费支出与体育产业发展之间没有单向和双向的Granger因果关系。在全民健身和健康中国上升为国家战略的背景下,人民群众的体育消费需求加大,体育产业发展迎来政策利好,我国城乡居民消费支出与体育产业发展之间具有长期的良性互动关系,但受制于我国长期存在的城乡二元结构和居民消费观念的影响,在短期内城乡居民消费支出对促进体育产业发展的作用不大。
By the methods of co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, the paper analyzed the interaction between urban and ruralresidents＂ consumption and the development of sports industry in china. The study showed that consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents and thedevelopment of sports industry are in the process of gradual improvement, but the gap between urban and rural residents＂ consumption still exists. Throughsports consumption, the expenditure of urban and rural residents influences the development of sports industry. The sports industry promotes its consumptionby providing suitable products and services for the people. In the long term, there is a cointegration relationship between rural residents＂ consumption andsports industry development but there is no such relationship in the rural areas. In the short term, there is no equilibrium relationship, the single and bi-direc-tional Granger causality between the consumption of urban and rural residents and the development of sports industry. In the context that national fitness andHealth China have become the national strategy, and people＇s consumption demand on sports is on the increase. As a result, the development of sports industryfaces a good policy and there is a long-term virtuous interaction between consumption of urban and rural residents and sports industry development in china.But due to the influences of the dual structure in urban and rural areas and the consumption concept of residents, people＇ s consumption will not contribute alot to the development of sports industry in the short term.
出处
《天津体育学院学报》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期87-92,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University of Sport
基金
江苏省哲学社会科学项目(项目编号:16TYB001)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(项目编号:2016SJB890015)
关键词
城乡居民
体育消费
体育产业
协整检验
urban and rural residents
sports consumption
sports industry
cointegration test
