摘要
20世纪80年代初开始,中国农村劳动力由于城镇化与工业化的快速发展大规模地向城市转移。与此同时,农业部门化肥使用量急剧增加:单位面积化肥使用量是世界平均水平的两倍。文章使用一个涵盖全国27个省和直辖市318个村,跨期15年(1987~2002年)的村级层面面板数据,研究了农村劳动力的转移如何影响化肥使用量。通过利用沿海城市和相关省份在不同时间点建立经济特区这一外生事件作为工具变量,文章发现短期外出务工导致单位面积化肥使用量大幅度增加。这表明由于农村劳动力转移导致农业劳动力的减少,农民使用化肥来代替需要较多劳力的有机肥。研究进一步发现,单位面积化肥使用量越高,下一年使用量会更高。这说明化肥的有效性在下降,土地肥力在下降,农民为保证产量不得不逐年使用更多的化肥。文章最后发现化肥的过度使用与我国河流湖泊的有机物污染相关。这表明工业化不仅直接造成水污染,而且通过影响农村地区劳动力的供给影响化肥的使用,间接导致水体污染。
In this paper, we examine a possible causal link between China＇s massive rural to urban migration and high chemical fertilizer use rates during the late 1980s and 1990s. Using a rich set of panel data on villages in rural China （1987 -2002 ）, our village level fixed effects results show a positive correlation between labor out - migration and fertilizer use per hectare. Employing the opening of a Special Economic Zone in a village＇s nearby city as an instrument to further control for the possible reverse causality between labor out - migration and fertilizer use rate, we find that rural labor out - migration leads to high fertilizer use rate. We interpret the results as evidence that labor out - migration induces the remaining farmers to use more chemical fertilizer in or- der to compensate for labor shortages. We further find that fertilizer use intensity is correlated with future fertil- izer use rates and fertilizer productivity is diminishing over time, which suggests that the land is becoming less responsive. Finally we find fertilizer use within a river basin is correlated with organic forms of water pollution.
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期149-160,共12页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
关键词
农村劳动力转移化肥过度使用
经济特区
水污染和环境后果
Rural to Urban Migration
Excessive Fertilizer Use
Special Economic Zones
Water Pollution andEnvironmental Consequences
