摘要
水资源紧缺是山东的基本省情,也是国民经济和社会发展的重要制约因素,对农业的影响尤为巨大.中国是一个人口大国,粮食问题始终是关系国家安全、社会稳定的重大战略问题.数据显示,旱灾是影响中国粮食生产的主要因素,因为旱灾造成的粮食损失要占全部自然灾害粮食损失的一半以上,而山东省更是粮食和人口大省,受到旱灾的影响更为严重.因此预测旱灾的发生,对于抗旱减少损失就显得十分有必要.分析旱情就要从降水量着手,本文通过2009-2015年的降水量统计数据来预测未来几年的降水量.因为降水量的数据并非基本的线性函数,所以对于降水量预测的建模选择灰色预测模型.最后,运用数学软件MATLAB来进行编程计算,得出结论,在2025年山东省可能会发生降雨量小于600mm的旱灾.
The shortage of water resources is the basic situation in the province of Shandong, affects agri- culture very much. China is a populous country, grain issue is always a major strategic issue concerning nation- al security and social stability. Figures show the major factor of China＇s grain production is drought,Shandong is a major province of grain - cultivating and population, so Shandong is particularly hard hit by the Therefore, it is very necessary cipitation, this paper predicted Precipitation data is not a basic drought. to predict the occurrence of drought. Analysis of the drought will start from pre- the next few years＇ precipitation with the precipitation data from 2009 -2015. linear function, so we choose Grey - forecasting model. Finally, we used mathe- matical software MATLAB to calculate, concluded that Shandong may experience drought which the precipitati- on less than 600mm.
出处
《泰山学院学报》
2017年第3期1-4,共4页
Journal of Taishan University
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(7150148)
现代农业发展研究院项目(13XSKB006)
山东省现代农业产业技术体系特种经济动物产业创新团队项目(SDAIT-21-11)
