摘要
利用长江中下游地区6个代表站2004—2011年中籼迟熟水稻品种区试资料及1984—2013年逐日最高气温资料,通过分析田间环境下逐日最高气温与水稻结实率的关系发现,长江中下游地区中稻高温敏感时段主要在水稻齐穗期前36天至齐穗期前4天。其中,齐穗期前14天左右(减数分裂期前后)高温对结实率的影响最为显著。在此基础上,利用水稻高温败育模型,根据各样本水稻减数分裂期逐日最高气温,实现研究区域站点尺度水稻高温败育的定量模拟预测。模型对高温年份2004年和2007年各站点水稻相对结实率模拟和预测的均方根误差分别为4.74%和2.84%。分析表明,利用基于水稻高温败育模型的定量模拟方法,可对长江中下游地区水稻高温热害情况进行较好预测。
Daily relationships between the maximum temperature in field conditions and rice seed setting rate were investigated by using the medium season late maturity hybrid rice variety regional trial data during 2004--2011 and daily maximum temperature data during 1984--2013 at 6 representative stations in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. It was pointed out that the high temperature sensitive period of the midseason rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley mainly sustained from 4 to 36 days before the full heading stage. High temperature around 14 days before the full heading stage （near the meiotic phase） had the most important influence on the midseason rice seed rate in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. According to the daily maximum temperature during the meiotic phase, the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model which was developed by our project team was used to quantitatively forecast the high temperature-induced sterility of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley at the site scale. The RMSE of the simulated （ year 2004） and forecasted （ year 2007） relative seed setting rate was 4.74% and 2.84% respectively. The analysis showed that the high temperature damage of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley could be well forecasted by using the quantitative forecast method based on the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2017年第1期73-77,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31401279
31671574)
江苏省农业科技自主创新资金项目(CX(14)2113)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035)
公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目(201203032)
中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放基金项目(AMF201201)资助
关键词
长江中下游
中稻
结实率
高温热害
the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley
midseason rice
seed setting rate
high temperature disaster
