摘要
能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程。能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化。基于1990—2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异。(2)世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势。(3)从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成"核心-次核心-节点"的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径。(4)经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全。随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整。
Energy system is extremely complex which involves the whole process from energy exploitation, energy production and energy transportation to terminal consumption or reserves. Energy transportation in the area contributes the formation of energy networks in the world. At the same time, space structure of energy changes tempestuously, as time goes on and the changes of a variety of external factors. With the help of analytical method of bicomponent trend map and social network and data and trade matrix of energy production and consumption of 195 countries from 1990 to 2015, we analyzed characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution of energy production, consumption and transportation in the world. The results show that ： （1）Energy production in the world are mainly distributed in the Middle East, Asia Pacific, former Soviet Union, North America, Central and South America and West and North Africa. Space patterns of crude oil, gas and coal are also different. （2）Consumption growth of world energy consumption growth is unstable, which is to say the regions with high consumption and high growth rate are the Asia Pacific and the emerging economies but European energy consumption slows down and consumption of North America, Japan and Russia even gets negative growth. （3）We can see from the world energy transportation that, the source of energy exports concentrates in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, northwest Africa, South America and other regions as well as Canada, Australia and other countries, and the source of energy imports concentrates in Asia, Europe, and the United States. The world energy transportation is changeable overall, so sometimes it＇s undulate in the Middle East and North Africa. Extroversive centricity of energy producer climbs constantly, and introverted centricity of Asia Pacific and emerging economies grow fastest. The form of ＇ core-sub-core-node＇ shows the decline in Europe, increase in Asia Pacific, which appears diversification. There are eight main paths of ene
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期63-71,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目"新区开发对大城市人口流动的效用及机制研究--以广州为例"(批准号:GD15XSH01)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于城际快速交通的城市区域网络响应与机理研究:以珠江三角洲为例"(批准号:41501120)
广东省普通高校创新人才类项目"广东省人口格局调整与制度创新研究"(批准号:2015WQNCX040)
关键词
世界能源
社会网络分析
双因子趋势图
能源运输
时空特征
global energy
social network analsis
bicomponent trend map
energy transportation
spatial-temporal characteristics
