摘要
本文利用历史文献资料重建了黄土高原地区过去千年的干湿变化及极端干旱事件序列。在过去千年中,AD1520左右黄土高原发生过一次由干向湿的转变。极端干旱事件在过去千年有三个持续大约250年的多发期。干湿变化与极端干旱事件的对应关系表明二者呈现独立演变的趋势。黄土高原干湿变化总体上与东亚夏季风呈较好的正相关关系。但在升温时这种关系并不稳定。而极端事件则在暖时段与冷谷时发生概率偏高。与PDO对比结果显示,千年尺度上黄土高原干湿变化同PDO存在显著的正相关关系,极端干旱事件在PDO处于暖相位时发生概率显著上升,且在一定程度上受到SOI的影响。
This paper reconstructs humidity index series and extreme drought events of Loess Plateau over the past millennium by Chinese historical documents. The reconstruction result shows a turning point at 1520AD. Before 1520AD, the climate of Loess Plateau is generally dry, while the climate shifts to wet after 1520AD. 2% probability of particular extreme drought events occur 22 times and 10% probability of extreme drought events occur I02 times during the last millennium. Extreme drought events have three multiple periods which continued 250 years. There is a relatively stable period which continued 150 years between multiple period. A multiple periods are 1000--1250AD, 1400 --1650AD and 1800AD to date. The relationship between dry/wet variation and extreme drought events shows that the probability of extreme drought events are not affected by changes of dry and wet variation, only at 1419--1519AD, probability of extreme drought events exist ascension in relatively dry times, and at 1329-1418AD, probability of extreme drought events exist decrease in relatively wet times. A relationship between reconstructs result and PDO shows that there have a significant positive correLation between dry/wet variation and PDO, and a probability of extreme drought events will exist ascension in warm phase of PDO, at the mean time it will be a（fected by SOI.
出处
《中国历史地理论丛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期5-12,共8页
Journal of Chinese Historical Geography
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目16JJD770010
高等学校全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目201114
复旦大学人文社会科学"青年创新团队发展计划"西南研究项目
