摘要
目的在村级尺度上探索杭州市萧山区2008年5月-2015年手足口病的时空动态变化,为预防和控制手足口病提供参考。方法通过"中国疾病预防控制信息系统"获取萧山区手足口病发病数据。在村、社区尺度,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件,对手足口病历年资料采用Moran’sⅠ指数进行全局空间自相关分析,采用SaTScan 9.2软件进行回顾性时空重排扫描统计探测聚集区。应用反距离加权插值法,制作2014年手足口病时空变化图。结果 2008年5月至2015年,萧山区手足口病年均发病率为61.07/10万,主要发病高峰为4-7月。除2008年外,其余年份手足口病表现为正的全局空间自相关,Moran’sⅠ值在0.0721~0.4172之间,呈增加趋势。2008-2009年未发现时空聚集区,2010-2015年共探测到16个聚集区,包括227个村、社区。2014年,手足口病波及的村、社区从1月份34个快速增加到4月29日的234个。结论萧山区手足口病具有明显的地区分布规律,存在时空聚集性,应重视城乡接合部和工业开发区附近的村、社区的手足口病防控。
Objective To explore the temporal-spatial dynamic change of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） at village scale in Xiaoshan district, Hangzhou City ,from May 2008 to 2015, to provide basis for preventing and controlling HFMD. Methods The HFMD incidence data was derived from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention. At village level, the global autocorrelation statistic （ Moran＇s I） was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD cases in ArcGIS10.2, retrospective spacetime permutation scanning statistics was applied to detect clusters of HFMD by using SaTScan9.2 software. Mapping the temporal and spatial changes of HFMD in 2014 by the inverse distance weighted interpolation. Results The annual average incidence rate of HFMD was 61.07 per 100,000 in Xiaoshan district, from May 2008 to 2015. The major incidence seasonal peak was between April and July. At village level,there were positive spatial global auto- correlation with the annual Moran＇s I gradually increased from 0.0721 to 0. 4172 during the study period except 2008. A total 16 temporal-spatial significant clusters were detected including 227 villages and communities from 2010 to 2015 while the cluster was not existed in 2008 and 2009. During the year 2014 ,the number of infected villages and communities rapidly increased from 34 in January to 234 on April 29. Conclusion In Xiaoshan, HFMD had a distinct regional distribution feature and temporal-spatial clustering, more attention should be paid to the villages and communities of iural-urban continuum and in vicinity of industrial development zone for HFMD prevention and control.
出处
《中国公共卫生管理》
2017年第2期171-174,共4页
Chinese Journal of Public Health Management
关键词
手足口病
空间自相关
空间聚集性
时空变化
hand-foot-mouth disease
spatial autocorrelation
spatial clustering
temporal-spatial change
