摘要
This study investigates the trends in the mean state and the day-to-day variability （DDV） of the surface weather conditions over northern and northeastern China （NNEC） during 1961-2014 using CN05.1 observational data. In this study, we show that the surface temperature （wind speed） has increased （decreased） over NNEC and that the DDV of the surface temperatures and wind speeds has decreased, indicating a trend towards a stable warm and windless state of the surface weather conditions over NNEC. This finding implies a trend towards more persistent hot and windless episodes, which threaten human health and aggravate environmental problems. The trends are also examined in reanalysis data. Both the ERA-40 and the NCEP data show an increasing （decreasing） trend in the mean state of the surface temperatures （wind speeds）. However, the reanalysis data show a consistent decreasing trend in the DDV of the surface weather conditions only in the spring. The underlying reason for the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions is further analyzed, focusing on the spring season. Essentially, the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions can be attributed to a decrease in synoptic-scale wave activity, which is caused by a decrease in the baroclinic instability. There is a contrasting change in the baroclinic instability over East Asia, showing a decreasing （increasing） trend north （south） of 40°N. This contrasting change in the baroclinic instability is primarily caused by a tropospheric cooling zone over East Asia at approximately 40°N, which influences the meridional temperature gradient over East Asia.
This study investigates the trends in the mean state and the day-to-day variability （DDV） of the surface weather conditions over northern and northeastern China （NNEC） during 1961-2014 using CN05.1 observational data. In this study, we show that the surface temperature （wind speed） has increased （decreased） over NNEC and that the DDV of the surface temperatures and wind speeds has decreased, indicating a trend towards a stable warm and windless state of the surface weather conditions over NNEC. This finding implies a trend towards more persistent hot and windless episodes, which threaten human health and aggravate environmental problems. The trends are also examined in reanalysis data. Both the ERA-40 and the NCEP data show an increasing （decreasing） trend in the mean state of the surface temperatures （wind speeds）. However, the reanalysis data show a consistent decreasing trend in the DDV of the surface weather conditions only in the spring. The underlying reason for the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions is further analyzed, focusing on the spring season. Essentially, the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions can be attributed to a decrease in synoptic-scale wave activity, which is caused by a decrease in the baroclinic instability. There is a contrasting change in the baroclinic instability over East Asia, showing a decreasing （increasing） trend north （south） of 40°N. This contrasting change in the baroclinic instability is primarily caused by a tropospheric cooling zone over East Asia at approximately 40°N, which influences the meridional temperature gradient over East Asia.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41421004 and 41210007)
the Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center (AORC)
International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) at University of Hawaii
