摘要
在清洁化、低碳化和智能化的能源革命背景下,高比例可再生能源成为电力系统未来发展的一个突出特征,也导致了电力系统结构形态的巨变。文中对高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测方法进行了阐述。首先分析了电力系统结构形态的内涵及其要素,建立了其形态演化的驱动力综合模型,然后结合高比例可再生能源发展趋势,分析其对电力系统形态结构的影响,建立高比例可再生能源驱动的电力系统形态演化模型。围绕高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化机理和复杂多重不确定性运行场景下的电力预测理论两个科学问题,分四个方面对其研究体系进行了详细阐述。
In the midst of clean, low carbon and smart energy revolution, a high proportion of renewable energy integration will be one of the basic characteristics of future electric power system that leads to tremendous changes in the morphological changes. And it also introduces the morphological evolution of generation, transmission, distribution and load of the system as a whole. The topology evolution model and power forecasting method of the future electric power systems are reviewed. The elements of the electric power system morphology and driving model are described first. Then based on analyzing the development trend of high proportion renewabl.e energy generations, a future power system morphological evolution model is proposed. Key scientific issues are concluded as： 1 ） morphological evolution mechanism of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy; 2） power forecasting of complex multiple uncertainty operation scenarios. Suitable research framework is divided into four aspects and analyzed in detail.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第9期12-18,共7页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900101)~~
关键词
高比例可再生能源
结构形态演变
广义负荷预测
驱动力模型
high proportion of renewable energy
morphological evolution
generalized load forecasting
driving model
