摘要
本文采用集成评估模型CIECIA,以提高研发投资、增加知识资本存量,进而驱动过程技术进步的方式实现了包括低碳节能技术进步在内的过程技术进步的内生化,通过设置不同的研发投资情景,模拟了研发投资率的提高对各国经济增长和碳排放的影响,对其实现国家自主贡献(INDC)目标和全球气候保护目标的有效性进行了评估。结果显示:中国、俄罗斯、印度和除美国、欧盟外的发达国家可通过提高研发投资率实现INDC目标,而占未来全球碳排放量50%以上的众多发展中国家无法通过提高自主技术创新速度实现INDC目标,进而导致研发投资情景无法实现全球2100年升温控制目标。但是,研发投资措施促进经济发展,从碳治理角度出发,可与经济损害型减排措施集成,提高碳减排政策的可行性。
This study applied the integrated assessment model named CIECIA. In CIECIA, a process technological progress mechanism driven by knowledge capital accumulation based on R＆D investment is built to realize the endogenous of process technological progress including energy efficiency technological progress. Based on this model, this study simulated the impact of R＆D on the economic devel- opments and carbon emissions, assessing their effectiveness on their intended nationally determined contributions （INDCs） and global climate mitigation targets. The results indicate that China, Russia, India and the developed countries except US and EU would meettheir INDC targets by improving R＆I） rates, whereas most of developing countries that occupy more than 50 percent of global carbon e- missions in future would fail because of higher carbon emission demands and lower process technological levels, which would result in the global climate mitigation target failing in those scenarios. Policy for R＆D investment could improve economy of a country, and it can be integrated with other measures of emission reduction that may cause economic losses, to improve the feasibility of emission reduction policies.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期158-165,共8页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家重大研究计划(973)项目"气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制
新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发"(2012CB955800)
国家自然科学基金项目"全球经济一体化作用下中国应对气候变化的区域碳治理研究"(41501130)
关键词
国家自主贡献
过程技术进步
研发投资
碳减排
集成评估模型
Intended nationally determined contribution
Process technological progress
R＆D investment
Carbon reduction
Integrated assessment model
