摘要
依据1959—2014年马口及三水站流量资料统计了西、北江干流径流的年际变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析径流变化趋势及突变特征,并采用小波分析的方法研究径流的多尺度时间周期特征,进一步预测西、北江径流的发展趋势。结果表明:近50 a来,西江马口站年均径流量及分流比总体减小,北江三水站年均径流量及分流比大幅增大。马口站的径流量在1986年后呈减少的趋势;三水站径流量在1993年后呈现增大趋势。两站径流量存在突变点,但均不显著。2014年后的一段时间内,马口站径流量继续表现为减小趋势,而三水站径流量继续呈增大趋势。马口及三水站年均径流量均存在28、6、4 a的周期尺度,在28 a的主周期尺度上,马口和三水站均存在18 a的平均周期,进一步可预测2015—2019年马口及三水站仍将处于"丰水"期,而2019—2028年则将处于"枯水"期。
Based on the hydrological data at Makou and Sanshui hydrological stations from 1959 to 2014, annual variation characteristics of runoff and diversion ratio of flow discharge in the West River and North River network are analyzed. The Mann - Kendall test is- used to analyzethe characteristics of runoff change trend and abrupt change. The Wavelet analysis method isused to analyzethe multi - scale period characteristics . It is found that： In recent 50 years, the runoff and diversion ratio of flow discharge decrease at Makou sta- tions in the West River but increase at Sanshui stations in North River. The runoff is in a trend of decrease after 1986 at Makou stations and in a trend of increase after 1993 at Sanshui stations. The point of abrupt change exist in the two stations, but they all are insignifi- cant. the runoff keeps decreasing at Makou stations and increasing at Sanshui stations for a period of time since 2014. There are signifi- cant 28,6,4a periodic variations of the runoff in the two stations and an average period of 18a at the main periodic scale of 28 a, it may further predict that in 2015 -2019 Makou and sanshui station will remain ＂wet＂ period, While in 2019--2028 will be ＂dry＂ period.
出处
《人民珠江》
2017年第4期8-11,共4页
Pearl River
