摘要
[目的/意义]技术成熟度作为衡量技术发展状态和未来趋势的重要指标,可以有效控制技术研发和应用的风险,被广泛应用于高科技、国防和战略性新兴产业的技术预测中。[方法/过程]在综合评述已有技术成熟度评价方法和应用研究基础上,基于转化理论的视角,构建包括论文比、专利比、引用比、专利网络密度与效率等十个指标在内的多维度技术成熟度评价模型,从而克服了单一指标的缺欠,并以混合动力汽车技术成熟度评价为例对该模型如何运用、准确性、合理性进行了说明。[结果/结论]测算结果表明,世界上混合动力汽车技术在2003年总体上已成熟,并在2009年以后由于在科学研究上的新突破而进入新的创新热潮期。
[ Purpose/Significance ] As an important indicator to measure development status and future trends of technology, technology maturity can effectively control the risk of technology development and application and has been widely used in technology prediction of national defense, high-tech and strategic emerging industries. [ Method/Process] Based on a comprehensive review of the existing evalua- tion methods and application research of technology maturity, from the transformation theory perspective, a multi-dimension evaluation model is proposed,overcoming the single index defect of previous studies. The ten indicators chosen in the model include the ratios of pub- lishedpapers, patents and citations, the density and efficiency of patent network etc.. Then the technology maturity evaluation of hybrid e- lectric vehicle istaken as an example to illustrate application, accuracy and rationalityof the model. [ Result/Conclusion ] The calculated re- sults show that the hybrid electric vehicle technology has reached its maturity in 2003, and it has entered into a new boom period since 2009 because of the new breakthroughs in scientific research.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期85-92,共8页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于DSGE模型的新能源汽车产业协同创新体系研究"(编号:71540006)
河南省科技攻关项目"河南省人口资源环境和谐调控关键技术研究"(编号:132102310528)
河南省科技攻关项目"河南省科技-经济中长期发展规划的模型体系和关键技术研究"(编号:142102310141)研究成果之一
关键词
技术成熟度
评价指标体系
混合动力汽车
technology maturity
evaluation index system
hybrid electric vehicle
