摘要
笔者基于37个新兴市场国家数据,通过构建静态、动态面板模型,实证考察了跨境资本流动的内外部驱动因素。实证结果表明,资本项目开放在短期和长期资本流动中分别起到重要但不同的作用;外部国际货币政策调整、外部流动性条件始终是跨境资本流动的显著决定因素;新兴市场国家基本面仅在长期跨境资本流动中表现出显著的影响力;随着新兴市场国家汇率机制总体上趋向弹性,汇率调整在跨境资本流动中的作用并不重要。我国的实证结果与新兴市场的相关结论总体上是一致的,但也有部分差异,主要原因是我国在汇率与资本项目开放上的自身特点使得相关结论表现出一定的"中国特色"。从新兴市场跨境资本流动驱动因素的历史经验与实证结果来看,我国在汇率与资本项目制定安排上,未来应当构建更具弹性的人民币汇率形成机制,引导人民币汇率有序调整,对短期跨境资本项目开放更加审慎,由此形成保持国内货币政策独立性、人民币汇率渐进有序贬值与资本项目开放审慎的政策格局。
Based on 37 emerging market countries＇ data set, the paper constructs static and dynamic panel model to investigate the determinants of different driven factors of cross-border capital flows. The empirical results indicate： opening capital account plays an important but different role in the short and long-term capital flows; external international monetary policy adjustments, external liquidity conditions have always been significant determinants of cross-border capital flows; fundamental elements of emerging market countries only exhibit significantly influence in a long-term cross-border capital flows; with the emerging market coun- tries tend to flexible exchange rate mechanism in general, the exchange rate adjustment is not an important role in cross-border capital flows. Conclusions of empirical study based on China are different from those of emer- ging market countries. Following the steady growth policy, we believe a more flexible exchange rate formation mechanism will be built in the future. We also believe that the openness to short-term capital account in the field of cross-border capital should be more cautious. It is necessary to adopt an independent monetary policy, to gradually devaluate the RMB exchange rate and to liberalize capital account.
作者
唐国强
王彬
TANG Guo-qiang WANG Bin
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期104-116,共13页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"资本项目开放
人民币汇率及其预期波动与资产市场价格稳定"(项目编号:71303254)
关键词
跨境资本流动
汇率
资本项目开放
新兴市场
Capital flow Exchange rate Capital account opening Emerging market
