摘要
目的研究无锡市大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2和NO_2)对人群日死亡数和日就诊数影响。方法从无锡市疾病预防控制中心健康促进部获得2012年1月1日—2013年12月31日的无锡市居民死因统计资料,从无锡市环境监测中心站获得同期的每日大气污染物监测资料,从无锡市气象局获得同期的每日气象监测资料,从无锡市第三人民医院和无锡市儿童医院获得同期的日就诊数资料,采用基于R软件的时间序列的Poisson广义线性模型,在控制时间的长期趋势、季节因素、气象因素、星期几效应和其他混杂因素后,分析无锡市大气污染物与居民日死亡数和日就诊数的关系。结果 PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2和NO_2浓度每升高10μg/m3,日死亡数分别增加1.5%、1.2%、0.9%和1.0%;儿童就诊数分别增加0.7%、0.6%和0.3%和1.1%;成人就诊数分别增加0.6%、0.7%、0.7%和1.3%。结论无锡市的大气污染物浓度能增加人群的日死亡数和日就诊数。
Objectives To study the effect of air pollution on daily mortality and daily outpatient visits in Wuxi. Methods The data of daily death air pollutants,meteorology and daily outpatient visits were collected from January 1,2012 to December 31,2013 in Wuxi,the time- series analysis by generalized linear model of Poisson regression based on R foundation for statistical computing was employed for analyzing the effect of air pollutants on daily mortality and daily outpatient visits via controlling the long- term trends,seasonal patterns,meteorological variables,the week effect and other confounding factors. Results An increase of 10μg / m^3 of PM（2. 5）,PM（10）,SO2 and NO2corresponded to 1. 5%,1. 2%,0. 9% and 1. 0% increase of daily mortality; corresponded to 0. 7%,0. 6%,0. 3% and 1. 1% increase of daily child outpatient visits; corresponded to 0. 6%,0. 7%,0. 7% and 1. 3%increase of daily adult outpatient visits respectively in Wuxi. Conclusion The results of the present paper showed that the current level of air pollutants can increase the daily mortality and daily outpatient visits in Wuxi.
作者
张旭辉
周伟杰
张熙
ZHANG Xuhui ZHOU Weijie ZHANG Xi
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2016年第6期407-411,共5页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
江苏省卫生计生委预防医学科研项目(MS201502)
无锡市科技局指导性项目
关键词
大气污染物
时间序列
日死亡数
日就诊数
air pollutants
time-series
daily mortality
daily outpatient visits
