摘要
[目的/意义]研究基于路网的风险评估模型在警务实践中的应用,帮助警方提升风险研判能力。[方法/过程]以台北市自行车盗窃案件为例,通过空间句法、风险地形模型、回归分析、基于路网约束空间分析等定量分析与定性分析方法,对自行车盗窃案件相关因素创建加权风险地图,绘制基于路网的犯罪风险地图。[结果/结论]通过与实际的自行车盗窃案件地理分布对比,验证了该模型具有优异效能,符合实际应用的需求。
[Purpose/significance]The paper is to study applications of road network-based risk assessment model in policing practice, to improve risk analysis ability of the police.[Method/process]The paper takes bicycle theft cases in Taipei City for example,uses methods of quantitative analysis such as space syntax, risk terrain model, regression analysis, road network-based spatial analysis,and qualitative methods, to create weighted risk map for correlative factors of bicycle theft cases, and draws road network-based crime risk map.[Result/conclusion]Compared with actual regional distribution of bicycle theft cases, it verifies that road network-based risk assessment model has excellent performance and meets requirements of practical application.
出处
《情报探索》
2017年第2期12-19,共8页
Information Research
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目"城镇社会安全风险评估与应急处置技术研究与示范"(项目编号:2015BAK12B03)研究成果
关键词
风险评估
空间分析
警务地理信息系统
空间句法
风险地形模型
risk assessment
spatial analysis
Police Geographic Information System
space syntax
risk terrain model
