摘要
文章探讨了我国利率市场化改革推进过程对于货币政策调控方式由数量型向价格型转变的影响。基于一般均衡模型的理论分析发现,利率市场化水平越高,货币需求的波动性越大,利率传导渠道的障碍越少,从而货币当局选择价格型调控方式的条件也就越成熟。采用季度宏观经济数据,构建四变量SVAR模型,通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解考察在利率市场化改革不断推进的过程中,数量型和价格型货币政策调控方式对于实现货币政策最终目标的相对作用。实证结果表明:数量型调控方式在我国货币政策调控体系中仍然处于主导地位;价格型调控相对数量型调控具有时滞短与力度温和等优点;随着我国利率市场化水平不断提高,价格型调控方式的优势将表现得更加突出。
This paper discusses the effects of interest rate liberalization on the change of China's monetary policy regulation from quantity-based pattern to price-based pattern. Based on general equilibrium model,the theoretical analysis shows that the more the interest rate liberalizes,the more the money demand fluctuates,with less obstacles in interest rate transmission channel,thus the conditions of monetary authorities to choose price-based monetary policy are more mature. Constructing SVAR model based on quarterly macroeconomic data,we empirically analyzes the relative effect of quantity-based and price-based monetary policy on the ultimate goal of monetary policy,through the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The findings are as following: Firstly,the quantity-based monetary policy is still in the dominant position for China's monetary policy regulation system. In addition,price-based monetary policy has less time lag effect and is more moderate than quantity-based policy. Finally,with the interest rate liberalization,the advantage of price-based policy will be more prominent.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期12-24,37,共14页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:71573206)的资助
