摘要
利用1961—2012年贵州省81个气象观测站的逐日降雨资料,采用概率分布、线性趋势和空间分析等方法,分析了贵州省近52年来最大日降雨量的时空分布特征。结果表明:近52年来,贵州最大日降雨量呈递增趋势,递增速率为2.3mm/10a,全省最大日降雨量为336.7mm,平均最大日降雨量为205.1mm,年际变化趋势表明,2000年以后最大日降雨量呈递减趋势;最大日降雨量季节差异明显,春季、秋季最大日降雨量呈递减趋势,夏季、冬季最大日降雨量均为递增趋势,最大日降雨量空间分布不均,由北向南呈递增趋势;最大日降雨量100年和200年重现期估算值的空间分布形态具有一致性,高值区主要在贵州南部一带,100年和200年一遇的最大日降雨量分别为350.9mm和375.8mm。
Based on the daily analysis techniques such as maximum daily p precipitation pres precipitation data for 81 stations of Guizhou Province from 1961 to 2012, the probability distribution, linear trend, spatial analysis were used to analyze the recipitation in time and space for recent 52 years. The results showed that maximum daily ented the increasing trend with the rate of 2. 3 mm/decade. The extreme maximum daily precipitation was 336.7 ram, and the average maximum daily precipitation was 205.1 mm, the annual varia tion tendency showed that the maximum daily precipitation had decreased since 2000. The maximum daily precipitation showed obvious seasonal variations and increased from north to south, and the maximum daily precipitation decreased in spring and autumn, and increased in summer and winter. Furthermore, the recur- rence periods of 100 years, 200 years of the maximum daily precipitation intensity were estimated primarily, which seemed that their distribution trends were consistent. The maximum area can be found in the south range. The maximum daily precipitation intensities in 100 years and 200 years can reach to 350.9 mm and 375.8 mm in Guizhou Province.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第1期167-172,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家科技支撑计划"西南突发性灾害应急与防控技术集成与示范"(2012BAD20B06)
贵州省重大科技专项计划"贵州‘两高’沿线特色农业气候精细化区划与气象灾害防控"[黔科合重大专项字(2011)6003]
关键词
最大日降雨量
重现期
Gumbel分布
maximum daily precipitation
reappearance period
Gumbel distribution
