摘要
2016年经济呈现出短期底部企稳与泡沫聚集的特点。在潜在增长平台下移、周期性、结构性以及趋势性因素共同作用的背景下,经济下行压力依然巨大,2017年宏观经济仍将持续筑底。而底部运行的深度和持续的长度取决于世界经济复苏程度、中国经济潜在增长水平、新产业新动能培育、房地产周期调整、政治经济周期波动以及对潜在风险的化解与对策等多种因素。与此同时,在"债务—投资"驱动模式下,我国债务规模快速攀升,债务水平已经积累至相当程度,债务的结构性风险突出,尤其是广义政府债务水平超出国际警戒线。而中国经济目前存在的深层次问题本质上大多与债务风险密切相关。比如资产泡沫的聚集,实际上是"债务—投资"驱动模式中投放的大量货币在股市、债市以及房地产等领域的伺机流动。债务风险有可能是引发中国经济爆发危机的关键点。从目前情况来看,中国具备防范危机的实力,但是对于可能引发危机的潜在因素必须重视。一方面,树立正确的危机观,不惧怕危机,建立危机应急机制。另一方面,在债务风险演变至债务危机前,防患于未然,建立风险缓释机制。
In 2016, the macro-economy exhibits the trend of short-term bottom stabilization and con- verging bubbles. As the potential growth level shifting downward, combined with cyclical, structural, and tendency factors, together they are still causing tremendous downward pressure, and will lead to continu- ous bottom-formation in the upcoming year of 2017. However, the depth and length of bottom-formation are related to world economy recovery, growth level of China＇s economy, cultivation of new industries and economy drivers, adjustment of real estate cycles, fluctuations of political-economy cycles, solutions to potential economic risks and many other factors. Meanwhile, domestic debt scale has been skyrocketing, driven by the ＂debt-investment＂ driving pattern~ this highlights the structural debt risks, as generalized government debt level exceeding the international warning line. The fundamental problems of China＇s e- conomy are mostly correlated with debt risks, such as the converging asset bubbles, are actually the cur- rencies allocated by the ＂debt-investment＂ driving pattern, now circulating in the stock, bond, and real es- tate market; while debt risks may very well be the trigger China＇s economic crisis. Judging from current situations, China is capable of preventing crisis, with sufficient attention on factors that may be the causes. On one hand, it is critical to establish a correct understanding and coping mechanism of economic crisis; on the other hand, to establish a risk mitigation mechanism before debt risks evolve to crises.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期5-25,共21页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
“中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心”子项目“认识适应和引领经济新常态研究”阶段性研究成果
关键词
筑底
债务风险
广义政府债务
风险缓释
bottom stabilization
bottom-formation
debt risks
generalized government debt
