摘要
棉蚜是棉区的主要农业害虫之一,对于棉花的产量和质量影响较大。为了准确地对棉蚜虫害的等级进行分类预测,以便采取科学的防治措施,该研究对山东省滨州地区1990—2009年的20年中5—9月的平均气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数等气象数据、棉蚜天敌数据与棉蚜虫害数据进行了相关性分析,筛选后保留的影响因子数据构建随机森林棉蚜虫害等级预测模型。结果表明:随机森林模型的OOB为5.7%,等级的误分率为0.09和0.019,经测试集检验,模型预测的准确率为82.2%。模型泛化性好,等级的误分率低。
Cotton aphid is one of the main agricultural pests of cotton,for greater effects on the yield and quality ofcotton. In order to accurately classify the level of cotton aphid pest forecast,through the acquisition of Binzhou areaof Shandong Province region from May to September in 1990-2009,average temperature,precipitation,relative hu-midity,sunshine hours and other meteorological data and cotton aphid enemies and Aphis gossypii pest data correla-tion analysis,screening of meteorological data to build a random forest pests and Aphis gossypii level prediction mod-el.Experimental results show that the random forest model of OOB was 5.7%,the level of point error rate was 0.09 and 0.019,have examined the test set and model prediction accuracy is 82.2%.The generalization of the model isgood,and the rate of misclassification is low.
出处
《安徽农学通报》
2017年第1期18-20,共3页
Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
随机森林
棉蚜
气象因子
等级预测
Random forest
Cotton aphid
Meteorological factors
level Prediction
