摘要
利用IGS中心提供的不同经纬度平静期、活跃期14d的电离层TEC格网点数据,以前8d的TEC值作为样本序列,分别采用Holt-Winters加法模型和乘法模型建立TEC预报模型,并预报后6d的TEC值。结果表明,无论在电离层平静期还是活跃期,2种模型所得预报结果大致相同,并与实际观测数据吻合较好,但加法模型的预测结果能更好地反映电离层TEC的变化特性。
Using 14 days＇ ionospheric TEC grid data provided by IGS center with different longitude and latitude at quiet and active period, taking the former 8 days＇ TEC value as sample data, the prediction models of ionospheric TEC are set up using Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative model respectively. Afterwards, the established models are used to forecast the latter 6 days＇ TEC value. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the two models are approximately the same and match well with the observation data, whether in ionospheric quiet or active periods. However, the Holt-Winters additive model can better reflect the changing characteristics of ionospheric TEC.
出处
《大地测量与地球动力学》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第1期72-76,共5页
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics
基金
国家自然科学基金(41664002
41541032
41064001)
广西自然科学基金(2015GXNSFAA139230)
广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室基金(15-140-07-11
15-140-07-29)
广西"八桂学者"岗位专项
广西研究生教育创新计划(YCSZ2015163)~~
