摘要
空域资源是民航业的关键资源,该文运用1980-2014年的数据研究了空域资源、民航收入与国民经济的关系,发现当航空里程增加到一定程度后,民航收入的增加将会遭遇"天花板"。通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,发现航空里程与国民收入之间呈现正向的长期协整关系及单向的格兰杰因果关系,国民收入增长带动航空里程的增长。通过投入产出表法测算,虽然航空里程对于国民收入增长弹性不大,但民航业对国民经济其他行业拉动作用显著。
The paper studies the relationship among airspace resources,civil aviation revenue and national economy with the data from 1980 to 2014.Results show that airspace resources not only directly affect aviation revenue,but also play a negative role in the national economy.Analysis of the air miles and civil aviation revenue indicates when air miles reach a certain level,the increase of civil aviation revenue hits a ＂ceiling＂ due to the saturation of airspace resources in the view of airspace length.With the help of the input-output table and co-integration analysis,the paper also tells though civil aviation industry stimulates the other industries,air miles and national income yet has a long-term negative co-integration relation.The impulses graphs and the Grainger causality analysis show that the increasing air miles have little influence on national income,while the growth of national income drives air miles to grow.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期20-27,共8页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于经济价值理论的空域资源利用评价方法研究"(编号:60672169)的资助
关键词
空域资源
民航收入
国民经济
投入产出表
Airspace Resources
Air Miles
Civil Aviation Revenue
National Economy
Cointegration
