摘要
利用2004年1月－2009年12月南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡资料和2003年12月-2009年12月南京地面气象观测站逐日气象资料，分析呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与同期和前期气象因素的关系，通过逐步回归按月份建立南京市呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数的预测方程，利用2010年的资料检验预测效果，得出了以下结论：过去2～7d气温平均值、过去3～7d气压平均值与死亡人数之间的相关程度均通过了α=0．001水平的相关显著性检验，过去6～7d的气温48、72h变幅与死亡人数之间的相关程度也通过了α=0．001水平的相关显著性检验；死亡人数对气温平均值的最强响应在滞后6d，气压平均值在滞后5d，风速平均值在滞后1～2d，过去72h变温在滞后1～2d，过去48、72h气温变幅在滞后6～7d．回归方程预测的死亡人数与实际死亡人数平均相差2人左右，预测效果优于按季节建立的模型．气象要素及其变化与呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数呈显著相关，气象要素对死亡人数的影响具有累积效应，并存在滞后性．
Based on the data for the respiratory disease death toll in Nanjing of Jan, 2004-Dec, 2009 and the daily data from surface meteorological observation in Nanjing of Dec, 2003-Dec, 2009, the relationship between the death toll and the early and synchronous meteorological factors were analyzed; then the prediction equations were built up by stepwise regression, and finally the prediction effect was checked by using the data of 2010. The results showed that, the relationship between the death toll and the average temperature during the past 2-7 d, the average pressure during the past 3-7 d and the rangeability of the past 48 h and 72 h temperature during the past 6-7 d could reach the level of 0.001. The strongest response of the death toll to the average temperature was in the lag of 6 d, the average pressure was in the lag of 5 d, the average wind speed and the past 72 h temperature change was in the lag of 1-2 d, and the rangeability of the past 48 h and 72 h temperature was in the lag of 6-7 d. The average death toll forecasted by the equations had an average difference of 2 people compared with the actual death toll. So this prediction model is better than the model built up by seasons. As a conclusion, the meteorological factors and their height variations can make a significant contribution to the death toll ot the respiratory disease. The meteorological factors have an accumulation effect and the response of the death toll has a lag. The model can be used as a reference in forecasting the death toll of the respiratory disease in Nanjing City.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期821-826,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201106034)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(41105109)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LZUJBKY-2013-m03)
国家自然科学基金项目(91644226)
关键词
呼吸系统疾病
气象因子
逐步回归
respiratory disease
meteorological factor
stepwise regression
